North Korea Research Articles

How fear of entrapment shapes South Korean public opinion on conflicts with North Korea under US extended deterrence

ABSTRACT The nuclear crises in 1994 and 2017 between the United States and North Korea introduced South Korea to the fear of becoming entrapped in unwanted wars on the Korean Peninsula. To understand how the fear of entrapment shapes a client state’s strategic judgments toward the use of force by a patron state under extended deterrence, we designed novel experiments on pre- and post-strike approval of military operations by combining war-game scenarios and survey experiments. In the pre-strike-approval experiment, we examined how the decision-making mechanism for military planning and operations, the type of weapon systems, and the expected casualties shape South Korean public opinion on the use of US military strikes against North Korea. In the post-strike-approval experiment, we provided South Koreans with outcomes of military strikes and examined how US unilateral military strikes against North Korea would change public attitudes toward the US–South Korea alliance. We found that the fear of US unilateral use of force and consequent entrapment in unwanted wars substantially decreased South Korean public approval of the military strikes against North Korea. We also found that US unilateral military strikes against North Korea, regardless of their success or failure, would severely harm the US–South Korea alliance.

Beyond generational discourse: An age-period-cohort analysis of South Koreans’ attitudes toward reunification with North Korea

ABSTRACT This study conducts age-period-cohort analyses of South Koreans’ attitudes toward reunification with North Korea, a hostile polity that shares a national identity, using the Korea Institute for National Unification survey data accumulated since 2014. It is found that the attitudes toward unification, in general, vary with age. Older respondents tend to show a greater need for unification, a weaker orientation toward peaceful coexistence, and a greater willingness to bear the unification tax burden. Unlike findings of the prior studies, cohort (generation) effects are limitedly found. While the youngest generation has the least interest in North Korea, the middle-aged generations who used to see North Korea through a lens of its own context have a relatively stronger interest in North Korea. In contrast, period effects outweigh cohort effects on South Koreans’ attitudes toward reunification and North Korea. These findings imply that the application of the “generational discourse of reunification with North Korea” in previous studies and the media may be overly exaggerated.

Seismic Discrimination Between Nuclear Explosions and Natural Earthquakes using Multi-Machine Learning Techniques

AbstractIn the field of seismic signal analysis, it is of utmost importance to accurately differentiate between earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions. As a contribution for the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), Various methods have been employed for this purpose, including Complexity, Spectral ratio, mb—Ms (body wave and surface wave magnitudes), and corner frequency of P and S waves. These discrimination techniques have been examined to manually identify natural seismic events from nuclear explosions across different regions worldwide, such as China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and the United States. To gather the necessary data, a comprehensive dataset comprising nuclear explosions and earthquakes of the same magnitude range (4 ≤ mb ≤ 6.5) of 35 seismic events from 1945 to 2017 has been compiled from the International Research Institute for Seismology (IRIS) using broadband and long period seismic stations. The objective of this study is to employ a range of linear and nonlinear Machine Learning (ML) models with the aim of automatically distinguishing between underground nuclear explosions and large earthquakes to enhance the accuracy of manual feature extraction. For this purpose, time domain waveforms and different classifier techniques focused on feature extraction have been used. The ML models employed include logistic regression, K-nearest neighbours classifier, decision tree classifier, random forest classifier, voting classifier, and Naive Bayes. The outcomes of the ROC and AUC analyses were employed to validate the validity of our proposed discrimination algorithm. The results show that the Random Forest Classifier is the most effective model, obtaining 100% accuracy in the case of feature extraction, while the best model for the time domain waveform classifier that achieved 75.5% accuracy is the voting classifier.

Keeping the Cold War Cold: Korea, 1966–1976

Abstract During the Cold War, U.S. strategic leaders had to deal with policies and issues in every part of the globe. The main theater was in Europe, but there were other regions that demanded attention. Korea was an important one. From the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s, the peninsula was on the brink of conflict as North Korea initiated a series of operations that were legitimate acts of war. There was a strong desire among South Korean government officials for a military response, but U.S. government leaders said no. Officials in Washington recognized the limits of U.S. power at the time, and designed their responses to maintain the status quo. The story of how the United States handled its undertakings in areas of marginal importance was a chapter in the larger history of the Cold War. A number of historians have suggested that the Third World played a key role in shaping developments in the Cold War, but U.S. actions in Korea indicate something a bit more complicated. Knowing when to become involved and when to limit losses was crucial in how the United States managed events along the periphery of the Cold War.

Bayesian Inversion of MDJ Seismograms for Source Parameters and Yields of DPRK Underground Nuclear Explosions 2 to 6

AbstractThe Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted six underground nuclear explosions at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site at Mount Mantap, a granite peak. Test 1 was separate from tests 2 to 6, which were within about 1 km of each other. Using seismograms recorded at Mudanjiang (MDJ) seismic station in China, I propose a new approach to obtain source parameters, source time functions and yields of events 2 to 6, assuming they share the same Green’s function from Punggye-ri to MDJ. Each source is modelled as a spherical cavity in a homogeneous isotropic elastic full space, with four independent parameters constrained by published data on the properties of granite and analysis of the recorded MDJ seismograms. The effect of the ground surface is included as a planar reflection that modifies the pressure at the cavity boundary. The Green’s function for each event is estimated by deconvolving the seismogram for the estimated source time function. Very fast simulated annealing (VFSA) is used to search the parameter space to minimise the root-mean square difference among the estimated Green’s functions and their mean. The estimated Green’s functions are similar and differ in amplitude by less than a factor of 2. Green’s functions from Punggye-ri to other seismic stations may be obtained by deconvolving the seismograms for the corresponding source time functions. Mapping the nonlinear zones surrounding each explosion indicates that this part of the site was destroyed by the underground nuclear tests before its official destruction on 24 May 2018.

Seaweeds as a major source of dietary microplastics exposure in East Asia

Microplastics (MPs) occurrence in marine ecosystems is well known, but their accumulation in seaweeds and subsequent human exposure remain understudied. This research quantifies MPs presence in two commonly consumed seaweeds, kelp (Saccharina japonica) and nori (Pyropia yezoensis), in East Asia, revealing widespread contamination dominated by microfibers (<500 μm). Based on dietary patterns, human uptake through seaweed consumption was estimated and quantified. Notably, Chinese people consume an estimated 17,034 MPs/person/year through seaweed consumption, representing 13.1% of their total annual MPs intake. This seaweeds-derived exposure surpasses all other dietary sources, contributing up to 45.5% of overall MPs intake. The highest intake was in South Korea, followed by North Korea, China, and Japan. This research identifies seaweeds as a major, previously overlooked route of dietary MPs exposure. These findings are crucial for comprehensive risk assessments of seaweed consumption and the development of mitigation strategies, particularly for populations in East Asian countries.

The United States and Asia in 2023

The past year witnessed a broad range of cooperation between the US and Asian states. As tensions with China and Russia and threats from North Korea continued to mount, the Biden administration’s strategic goal of a free and open Indo-Pacific gained ground in many Asian states, and strategic partnerships were formed based on various interests. The trilateral partnership between the US, South Korea, and Japan and deepening ties between the US and India were notable. While US–China relations deteriorated, there was a glimpse of positive adjustment in their competition. However, uncertainties and skepticism were raised regarding shared interests or values. Worries about the rise of a new Cold War intensified. The third year of the Biden administration continued to see persistent challenges to its Asia policy.

South Korea and North Korea: Differences in Ideology and Their Impact on War

This article analyzes the ideological differences between South Korea and North Korea and their impact on war, especially the Korean War (1950-1953). South Korea adheres to the ideology of liberal democracy and capitalism, while North Korea practices the ideology of Juche, socialism and autonomy. These differences have deepened conflict on the Korean Peninsula, reaching its peak in the Korean War. The impact is felt to this day with military tensions in the DMZ. Despite this, reconciliation efforts have been made, offering hope for peace in the region. This research was conducted descriptively using a literature study which was then analyzed to identify ideological differences between South Korea and North Korea and their impact on the war.

디지털 미디어 이용자들의 대북한 인식 분석을 통한 평화리터러시 구축 방안 모색

The purpose of this study is to explore ways to build Peace Literacy aimed at unification through the MZ generation's perception of North Korea on the TikTok platform. Unification education must change appropriately depending on the ones being educated and the times. The MZ generation, who grew up in a diverse digital media environment, has an increasing tendency to perceive North Korea as another country rather than as a nation, and the contents of video posts and comments also do not properly view and recognize North Korea. While many video posts introduce daily life in North Korea, comments express vague fears about war. The MZ generation is accustomed to using digital media to understand the world and solve social problems. Therefore, in order to educate the MZ generation about building peace on the Korean Peninsula, digital media should be used as an educational tool. For building Peace Literacy using digital media, first, objectivity must be guaranteed. Second, there must be a change in educational tools. Third, we need to think about what to teach. Peace Literacy with these components will enhance the ability to read, understand, and express(write) the international situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula. It is believed that the Peace Literacy program using digital media will be helpful in establishing unification policy and unification education program because it can be expanded not only to public education in schools but also to adolescents and young adults outside of school.

북한이탈주민 조기 정착을 위한 제도 개선 방안

North Korea under the socialist system has a structure in which the type and site of work are determined according to the central policy rather than employment other than individual ability in choosing jobs for its residents. Since it is important for North Korea, which is pursuing a planned economy, to achieve production goals set in accordance with each economic sector's plan, groups take precedence over individual abilities at the work site, and there are few changes in the working environment, such as turnover or relocation of work, so efforts or activities to equip individuals with competitiveness in their activities are of little significance. Most of the North Korean defectors who entered South Korea were subordinated in such a working environment at the time of their repatriation. South Korea is making great efforts to increase the competitiveness of individuals seeking employment because economic activities are determined according to the principle of marketism. North Korean defectors who were accustomed to the socialist planned economy system had jobs, but it is difficult to settle smoothly in that employment for adaptation to South Korean society is mainly achieved through competition with the general public. With 34,000 North Korean defectors now, their successful settlement in South Korean society as a priming water for the unification of the Korean Peninsula is drawing attention as a very important issue. This is because economic independence and income are achieved through employment, and the settlement of economic stability leads to stable participation in South Korean society. The economic activities of North Korean defectors will reduce the loss of social costs for them in South Korean society as a whole, which will further benefit the South Korean economy, and serve as a cornerstone for future unification of the two Koreas. Therefore, this study aims to suggest the possibility of obtaining compulsory employment-type qualifications in consideration of educational background and career in North Korea as an institutional improvement plan for early settlement based on economic stability in South Korea.

Using Moment Tensor Inversions for Rapid Seismic Source Detection and Characterization: Application to the North Korean Nuclear Tests

AbstractThe rapid detection and source characterization of any type of seismic events including earthquakes and nuclear explosions is one of the missions of many seismological laboratories. Most often, the techniques used are based on phase picking and amplitude measurements for detecting and locating events, and for estimating magnitudes. From these parameters, especially for anthropogenic sources, event screening is then done empirically, and this may lead to misinterpretations of the source nature. However, it is known that seismic waveform inversion for the determination of the moment tensor has proven to be a reliable source physics-based method for event characterization. Here, we present a technique already used for earthquake monitoring in tectonically active regions, and we test it on very shallow natural and anthropogenic events recorded in the vicinity of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). From a grid of potential locations and by scanning continuous seismic waveforms, it is possible to implement a rapid detector of seismic events providing the full information of the sources (origin time, location, magnitude, mechanism, and source decomposition). We show its overall performances on all past DPRK nuclear tests and regional earthquakes. From such an approach fast complete event screening is achieved. Source uncertainties can also be estimated. This stand-alone detector and identifier of seismic events may help monitoring seismological agencies to provide a rapid and complete alert for any events within a region of interest before more in-depth discrimination analysis can be run.

Insights into atmospheric trace gases, aerosols, and transport processes at a high-altitude station (2623 m a.s.l.) in Northeast Asia

As part of the efforts to understand long-range air pollution transport in Northeast Asia, a comprehensive field measurement campaign was conducted at the top of Changbai Mountain (2623 m a.s.l.) from 25th July to 21st August in 2021. The ambient concentrations of trace gases and chemical characteristics of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were comparable to those at background or free tropospheric locations in China, but exceeded levels at corresponding sites in Europe and the United States. Well-defined diurnal variations were evident in most air pollutants, including carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxide (NOx), reflecting the influence of boundary layer development and local anthropogenic activities. Ozone (O3) exhibited a unique diurnal distribution, with lower concentrations during the daytime and higher levels at nighttime, indicating a pronounced impact of downward transport of O3-rich air from the upper troposphere during the nighttime. During the campaign, organic carbon (OC) constituted the predominant component of PM2.5, comprising 43% of the total, while sulfate (SO42−) was the most abundant secondary inorganic component in PM2.5, accounting for 26%. Combining the analysis of air mass backward trajectories, we found that Changbai Mountain is primarily influenced by air masses originating from North Korea and the Sea of Japan, constituting 62% of the total, and local vegetation biological emissions and anthropogenic emissions in North Korea notably affect the observation site. Conversely, the secondary aerosol components were most abundant in marine air mass originating from the marginal seas of China and the strait between the Korean peninsula and southern Japan. Utilizing the Lagrangian photochemical trajectory model (LPTM), a significant increase in particulate SO42− concentrations was observed when air mass passed through the marginal seas of China, primarily due to SO2 oxidation reaction. This study contributes to an improved understanding of the atmospheric chemistry in the high-altitude regions of Northeast Asia and underscores the substantial role of secondary inorganic aerosol formation during the transport of marine air masses.

Application of the domain adaptation method using a phenological classification framework for the land-cover classification of North Korea

Efforts to achieve carbon neutrality are global, encompassing a wide range of factors. For the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has proposed an advanced method that requires Approach 3, the highest level of suggested method, of activity data. Accordingly, we propose a phenological classification framework (PCF) that can perform land-cover classification by training the climatic repeatability of the annual cycle using a U-Net deep learning model. Additionally, the domain adaptation (DA) method can be applied to classify areas with insufficient data. We applied these methods to classify North Korea (i.e., using South Korean data), with an accuracy of 81.31%; overall this effort culminated in the simultaneous classification of the Korean Peninsula. Domain distribution comparison showed that the results for the two regions were similar. The PCF and DA methods proposed in this study allow for annual production of a land-cover map and change matrix, regardless of the presence or absence of data. The application of these methods is expected to provide a scientific basis for policy decisions that can facilitate the global attainment of carbon neutrality.

Санкционная политика США в отношении КНДР (1948–2020 гг.)

The article examines the evolution of the sanctions policy of the United States against North Korea. It is noted that this policy has gone through several stages over the past seventy years. The article analyzes the reasons for the restrictions, as well as the results achieved by the White House administration. The periodization of the US sanctions policy towards the DPRK is given.

R2P 관점에서 본 인도적 대북지원의 쟁점과 과제

This study summarized the achievements and issues of humanitarian assistance to North Korea and looked at the direction and Tasks in terms of ‘Responsibility to Protection(R2P)’ that has been actively raised in the international community. If we expand the concept of R2P, it includes the meaning of ‘prevention’ and ‘support’ to prevent systematic human rights violations from occurring. In other words, it can be seen that the suppression of human rights against North Koreans, the threat of survival due to food shortages, and the level of serious health care all provide the basis for the international community’s intervention in North Korea. And intervention in North Korea from an R2P perspective is actually a means of preventing North Korea’s provocations in the current situation in North Korea. Considering the past experience of humanitarian assistance to North Korea and the nature of the North Korean regime, a long-term and gradual strategy is needed to maintain both humanitarian assistance and international pressure for intervention in North Korea from the R2P’s perspective in order to bring about the ultimate change in North Korea.

국가 이미지와 통일·대북정책 태도 간 관련성에 관한 탐색적 연구

This study explores the association between South Koreans’ perceptions of neighboring countries, their views of unification, and their attitudes toward North Korea policy. By applying the framework of international image theory, this study categorizes national images and explores potential variations in attitudes toward unification and North Korea policies across different image types. The results are summarized as follows: Individuals who hold an imperial image of Japan feel are less inclined toward unification and tend to support status-quo North Korea policies. Conversely, those with an imperial image of the United States demonstrate the most proactive attitudes toward reunification, attempting to address the North and South Korean issues from a non-nationalist perspective. Respondents with a barbarian image of China, which is the most prevalent image in South Koreans, show a passive attitude toward unification, favoring peaceful coexistence similar to those with an imperial image of Japan. However, they oppose the notion that severing relations with North Korea is more beneficial, differing from the views of those who hold an imperial image of Japan. These findings suggest that evaluations of soft power are closely linked to the perceptions of neighboring countries. An improvement in cultural status leads to a barbarian image of neighboring countries, potentially fostering pessimistic attitudes toward achieving unification.

박정희 정부의 전력증강 정책 추진에 대한 미국의 대응 분석

This article examines the response of the U.S. to the Korean government's power enhancement project in terms of alliance management. The Park Chung-hee administration resolved security concerns caused by increased threats from North Korea and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea, and promoted a policy to increase power for self-defense. A dual-path strategy was implemented by the Park Chung-hee administration's power enhancement policy, which combined the conventional power enhancement policy and the nuclear weapons development policy. The U.S. showed double-faced strategy to the Korea’s power enhancement policy. First, the U.S. was in a favorable position to Korea’s conventional power enhancement policy. Second, the U.S. thwarted Korea’s nuclear weapons development by checking and obstructing it. Through this study, it can be confirmed that the success or failure of an attempt to change power through the power enhancement of a weaker country in an asymmetric alliance system depends on the interests of the powerful countries. Therefore, in order to resolve the imbalance in alliance relations through the increase of its own power, weaker countries must consider and persuade the interests of powerful countries.

북·중·러 연합의 형성과 전망

This study analyzes the North Korea, China, and Russia coalition amidst complex global crises like the US-China strategic competition, the US-Russia crisis, and the North Korean nuclear issue, using coordination games and problems as analytical tools. In the ‘New Cold War’ context, they identify a focal point, form coalitions, and coordinate strategies based on reactive anti-US policies and confrontations with coalitions involving ROK, the US, and Japan. However, differing perspectives on the ‘New Cold War’ and external factors leading to divergent focal points resulted in strategic uncertainty. Forming a stable grand coalition as an institution is challenging, and there is a risk of abandonment when forming a specific coalition based on interests. Moreover, the emergence of spoilers within the coalition breeds apprehension among other nations, rendering the coalition unsustainable. Consequently, the sustainability of the North Korea-China-Russia coalition diminishes, fostering ongoing non-cooperative behavior amidst a temporary phase of adhesion.

Determination of Optimal Antigen Yield and Virus Inactivation Conditions for the Production of the Candidate Foot-and-Mouth Disease Recombinant Vaccine Strain Asia1 Shamir-R in a Bioreactor.

Since the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in South Korea in 2010-2011, vaccination policies utilizing inactivated FMD vaccines composed of types O and A have been implemented nationwide. However, because type Asia1 occurred in North Korea in 2007 and intermittently in neighboring countries, the risk of type Asia1 introduction cannot be ruled out. This study evaluated the antigen yield and viral inactivation kinetics of the recombinant Asia1 Shamir vaccine strain (Asia1 Shamir-R). When Asia1 Shamir-R was proliferated in shaking flasks (1 L), a 2 L bioreactor (1 L), and a wave bioreactor (25 L), the antigen yields were 7.5 μg/mL, 5.2 μg/mL, and 3.8 μg/mL, respectively. The optimal FMDV inactivation conditions were 2 mM BEI at 26 °C and 1.0 mM BEI at 37 °C. There was no antigen loss due to BEI treatment, and only a decrease in antigen levels was observed during storage. The sera from pigs immunized with antigen derived from a bioreactor exhibited a neutralizing antibody titer of approximately 1/1000 against Asia1 Shamir and Asia1/MOG/05 viruses; therefore, Asia1 Shamir-R is expected to provide sufficient protection against both viruses. If an FMD vaccine production facility is established, this Asia1 Shamir-R can be employed for domestic antigen banks in South Korea.

Russia, China, and North Korea Strategic Defense Partnership

Due to the aggravation of the global geopolitical confrontation, the relations in the sphere of security issues within the framework of the Russia - China - North Korea triangle get particular importance. The purpose of the study is to analyze the current state and prospects of the strategic defense partnership between Russia, China, and North Korea. The authors used the following methods: a system approach, a method of situational analysis, a comparative method, a method of analyzing the current situation, as well as a method of scenario forecasting. The authors analyzed the relations between Russia and China in the military sphere, Russian-North Korean relations in the security sphere, as well as the role of China and North Korea in ensuring stability in the region. It is concluded that in the current conditions of rising tensions in the AsiaPacific region, primarily on the island of Taiwan and the Korean peninsula, these countries will converge, first, against the triangle USA - Japan - South Korea, often called “Asian NATO”. To conclude, the relations between Russia, China and North Korea will not take the form of a fullfledged military alliance. It is expected that the efforts of military-technical cooperation and the possibility of mutual support in the event of a security threat to one of the countries will be deepened.